FORSU Market Analysis in Sicily and Lazio
The challenge
The client, a leading operator in environmental plant engineering, including plants for the production of biomethane from OFMSW and agricultural and livestock waste, was considering entering the Italian biomethane market through two new initiatives located in the Lazio and Sicily regions.
In order to assess the economic feasibility of the projects and support the final investment decision, the Client needed an in-depth and up-to-date analysis of the FORSU market over the planned useful life of the plants. In particular, it was necessary to assess:
• the current and future availability of FORSU at regional and local level,
• the structure of delivery tariffs,
• the configuration of existing and planned plant supply,
• the impact of regulatory developments on plant development.
The solution
FMCI conducted a comprehensive, multidimensional analysis of the FORSU market in Sicily and Lazio, with the aim of supporting the development of the economic and financial plan and the strategic assessment of the two biomethane and compost plants. The activity included:
• Analysis of the regulatory framework at national and regional level,
• Reconstruction of historical FORSU production series and definition of expected growth trends, also based on separate collection targets,
• Detailed mapping of existing and developing plants, with estimation of current and future capacity and assessment of competition for FORSU.
• Analysis of delivery tariffs, including territorial benchmarks and evolutionary scenarios.
• Development of forecast scenarios for 2040 regarding FORSU availability, plant demand, plant saturation, and delivery tariffs.
This approach provided a clear picture of the competitive environment and supply prospects in the reference territories.
The conclusion
The analysis made it possible to:
• identify possible future situations of under- or over-capacity, both locally and regionally;
• assess the sustainability of FORSU supply for both projects;
• provide useful information for estimating the expected return on investment, considering tariffs, availability, and market scenarios;
• provide the client with all the information necessary to make informed decisions and proceed towards the Final Investment Decision (FID).
Thanks to the study, the client was able to obtain a clear, robust, and long-term overview, which was essential for defining its strategy for entering the Italian biomethane market.
